Analyzing the Decline: A Closer Look at MCPS Middle School Enrollment Trends

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In: Enrollment, Local Government, Maryland, MCPS, MCPS Enrollment, Research

Background and Source Data

Middle school enrollment in MCPS was analyzed for the years 2018 to 2022.

Official enrollment numbers are found in the “Official Reports of Enrollment” on the MCPS Office of Shared Accountability web page.

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Results and Conclusions

The number of students per year is shown. The year indicates enrollment on Sept 30 of that year, i.e., 2022 is for the 2022-2023 school year or class of 2023.  Color coding indicates a cohort class throughout middle school, e.g., the middle school class of 2023 is colored yellow, and it had 12,262 6th graders in fall 2020 and 12,214 8th graders in fall of 2022.

The number of students per a particular grade each year has varied. 2018 and 2022 numbers were compared. Eighth grade had the largest increase (223 students), while 6th grade had the largest decrease (584 students).

20182022Change in Student Number
Grade 612,31811,734-584
Grade 712,18011,908-272
Grade 811,99112,214223

The individual class cohorts showed an increase in students between grades 6 and 7 from 2018 to 2019 and from 2021 to 2022.  The class cohorts showed a decrease in students between grades 6 and 7 from 2019 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2021.

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Cohort Year 1Cohort Year 2ColorChange in Student Number
Grade 6 2018Grade 7 2019Light blue241
Grade 6 2019Grade 7 2020Light green-121
Grade 6 2020Grade 7 2021Yellow-170
Grade 6 2021Grade 7 2022Orange176

The individual class cohorts showed an increase in students between grades 7 and 8 from 2018 to 2019 and from 2021 to 2022.  The class cohorts showed a decrease in students between grades 7 and 8 from 2019 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2021.

Cohort Year 1Cohort Year 2ColorChange in Student Number
Grade 7 2018Grade 8 2019Red143
Grade 7 2019Grade 8 2020Light blue-152
Grade 7 2020Grade 8 2021Light green-151
Grade 7 2021Grade 8 2022Yellow122

The overall total middle students in grades 6 through 8 by year was:

  • 2018: 36,489
  • 2019: 37,637
  • 2020: 37,303
  • 2021: 36,307
  • 2022: 35,856

The middle school enrollment has declined each year beginning in 2019 (by 334 students, 996 students, and 451 students).

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