Cracking the Mystery of Montgomery County’s Population: From Boom to Bust

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In: County Executive, Enrollment, Government, Housing, Information, Local Government, Maryland, MCPS, MCPS Enrollment, Population, Research, U.S. Census

Background

A few days ago, Fox5DC reported that “New evidence is showing that more people are moving out of Montgomery County and into Frederick County.”

Montgomery County Exec Marc Elrich seemed to rebut this in a Twitter post where he quotes this website post which is a top Google hit and shows Montgomery County population has grown in 2021, 2022, and 2023.

As you will see by the end of this article, that data appears to be way off the actual numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau. Read on to see more.

We have also previously covered Maryland public schools enrollment data (which shows Montgomery County as one of the larger decreases and Frederick County as the fastest growing). We have individually analyzed MCPS enrollment in Elementary School, Middle School, and High School.

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Whose Claims are Correct?

It is pretty obvious that Frederick County population is increasing.

So the thing to examine is whether Montgomery County population is actually increasing and the makeup of our population. It appears that the World Population Review cited by the County Exec is actually a projection based on the 2020 Decennial Census so the data is multiple years old based on pre pandemic trends.

According to the Maryland Regional Economic Analysis Project, Montgomery County population declined in 2021 whereas Maryland stayed about the same population and the Country as a whole grew in population. The data is dated November 2022.

According to that site, 2021 was the first time Montgomery County had a negative population change since 1979.

By comparison, the site shows that Frederick County population increased by 2.6% which was the largest increase since 2002.

Official Census Data

While the U.S. Census is only actually done every 10 years (the latest being 2020), every year they provide estimates.

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The most recent estimates came in this week for 2022 (which is what started this whole conversation). Here is the large U.S. Census graphic that shows which Counties grew, shrank, or stayed the same in 2022 estimate.

The official U.S. Census Bureau website QuickFacts has not been updated for this 2022 population data yet but it does show 2020 and 2021 data in line with the Maryland Regional Economic Analysis Project data highlighted above.

Outside of Montgomery County, Maryland – here is the U.S. Census Bureau’s press release from March 30, 2023 on trends on growth in 2022.

Extracting the Maryland Counties data from the U.S. Census data population indeed shows that Montgomery County population has declined in each of the past 3 years estimates while Frederick County population estimate has grown for each of those 3 years.

We put this data in a new chart just to highlight Maryland, Montgomery County, and Frederick County official U.S. Census estimated population growth between since the last Census in 2020 and it is quite striking the differences.

Conclusion

Yes, Montgomery County population has shrank over the last 3 years and Frederick County has had tremendous growth.

The County Executive quoted a website that while it was the top hit on Google, does not appear to be using recent U.S. Census data and is not accurate according to U.S. Government sources. The website states that it is a projection based on 2020 data.

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