Introduction (Read this first)
These charts are similar and a follow up to our previous post about the County Executive Race which was about projections.
Updates And Remaining Votes To Count
- So far to date there are at least 67,102 Democratic mail-ins received in Montgomery County and 45,193 mail-in votes tallied for the 4 County Executive candidates.
- 54,196 votes have been tabulated (counted) for all mail ins in MOCO but we will use 45,193 since that’s how many mail ins have been counted for County Executive.
- There are Actually AT LEAST 45,557 democratic mail in votes tabulated – this is the total for the U.S. Senator Race.
- This means at least 360 left their County Executive ballot blank
- It is possible (likely even?) that the race is decided by less people than left it blank.
- There are another 8030 Provisional ballots that have not been counted yet.
- Any ballots received by 7/29/2022 that are postmarked by 8pm 7/19 will still count and those are still being counted.
- 54,196 votes have been tabulated (counted) for all mail ins in MOCO but we will use 45,193 since that’s how many mail ins have been counted for County Executive.
You can see Montgomery County Election Data here
In the images you can zoom in and look at the white line that shows the relativity to the leader. We have also provided close ups due to the incredibly close nature of this race.
Current Race Totals
As you can see in the chart Blair still leads by 131 but Elrich closes in by 14 on the day.
Close up of how close behind Elrich is in Image 1 above (down by just 131)
Projections
Disclosure – These are PROJECTIONS based on previous voting totals and remaining votes to count. These are NOT PREDICTIONS about what the final result will be.
Close up of how far behind David Blair is in this projection in Image 3 above (down by just 43 votes)
Projection Table
Here is a part of the table that shows the exact number of current and projected votes and in the last column the difference between current and projected.
Previous Projections
You can see the piece on our previous projections on 7/21 here.
What you will notice there is that Elrich was way ahead in the projection compared to the nail biter now. This shows how Blair done better in mail-in as time goes on and it seems likely Elrich will continue to get less percent of the mail-ins (even if he still gets more than Blair) compared to the initial projection.
Just for consistency, here is the actuals chart from that same day 7/21
Conclusion
It still seems to early to call this one either way definitively though we’re getting close.
Although the projection does favor Elrich, he has been behind in mail-ins for several days until making up some ground today.
The next day or two of counting is going to be key as will provisional ballots and how many actual mail ins came in from the most recent days that aren’t accounted for here.
For Provisionals we estimated them to be similar to in person for estimate so they’re estimated to favor Blair. If this percent were to shift one way or another it could be big since at this point no provisionals have been counted to our knowledge.
I do think at this point that Blair will pull it out (and possibly need a recount to prove it) since he is ahead now as the number of ballots remaining shrinks.
The biggest part of Elrich’s projected lead in mail-ins were from the early batches and then it cooled off to favor Blair slightly until today as we saw comparing the earlier 7/21 projection.
Unless Elrich trends for a few more days ahead AND stronger than we’ve seen in recent days, Blair should be able to hold on.
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More Reading
Did you like this analysis? See our previous analysis of the Montgomery County County Executive Race looking at projections of remaining mail-in ballots.
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