MOCO DHHS Says The County Has High Community Transmission, CDC Says Otherwise – Who Is Right? What Does It mean?

7/29/2022 – Update – Earl Stoddard and MOCO DHHS Respond

7/26/2022 – MOCO Dashboard, DHHS, Elrich Claim High Communities Levels

See the MOCO Covid Dashboard here which began showing “Community Level Status: High” a few days ago: https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/

Here are some official tweets about it from DHHS and the County Executive:


7/28/2022 – CDC Does Weekly Thursday Update – Still Shows MOCO in Medium

When asked about discrepancies, the DHHS told us to wait until Thursday for the CDC weekly county data drop.

We did, and to little surprise, the CDC shows the County still in “Medium”:

Image: CDC shows Montgomery County in “Medium” Transmission

Maryland Covid Levels shows Montgomery County AND all Neighboring Counties Medium or Low Community Transmission Levels

Image: Maryland Covid Levels shows Montgomery County AND all Neighboring Counties Medium or Low Community Transmission Levels

Why The Difference?

It seems that County dashboard shows that it takes hospitalization into account from neighboring counties as well whereas the CDC does not.

Image: Reporting Geography from top of hospitalizations chart showing it includes several other areas.

These areas don’t appear to be in the “High” category either and there was a really significant jump in the 7 day total on 7/22/2022 that is a bit suspicious. Since the county hides the real data (only showing 7 day total) it’s hard to say more.

Image: Shows date 7/22/2022 Jump from well below the “High” to well above.

But, it is interesting to note that the CDC Hospitalizations chart has no such jump as Montgomery County had at 7/22/2022 to get into the “High” category for hospital admissions testing positive for covid.

Image: CDC 7 day hospitalizations, beds, and daily ICU used in Montgomery County according to CDC.

Here is one additional data chart from the State of Maryland which seems to line up closer to the CDC than Montgomery County:

Image: State of Maryland Covid Hospitalizations data and facts

MCPS and City Of Gaithersburg Send Out Information Regarding High Status Including Some Policy Changes

Meanwhile, MCPS sent out updated guidance in a note indicating the “High” status and The City of Gaithersburg according to reports sent out updated guidance requiring masking for summer programs effective immediately.

Link to 7/28/2022 MCPS Community Update: https://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/publicinfo/community/school-year-2022-2023/Community-Update-20220728-covid-final.html

Image: Text from MCPS 7/28 Covid update moving to “Strongly Recommends” list of mitigations after indicating high status

Maryland Updates School Guidance

Also this week, State of Maryland updated school guidance which includes some guidance related to “High” community transmission: https://www.marylandpublicschools.org/newsroom/Documents/COVID/PreK-12SchoolandChildCareGuidance7.22.22.pdf


Good News With New Charts On Vaccinations Status

One positive addition to the Montgomery County Covid Dashboard is that they are now showing the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by vaccination status and it appears the vast majority of serious cases are in the unvaccinated despite them being a minority in the county.

You can see all of the charts but we will highlight a few: https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/case-counts.html

Image: cases by vax status
Image: Hospitalizations by vax status
Image: Deaths by vax status

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4 Comments


  1. In response to this passage in particular: “It seems that County dashboard shows that it takes hospitalization into account from neighboring counties as well whereas the CDC does not.”

    That’s wrong. Both the county numbers and CDC’s dashboard are reporting based on the HSAs (Health Service Areas) as defined by CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics: https://seer.cancer.gov/seerstat/variables/countyattribs/hsa.html

    The HSA for this area combines Montgomery, Prince George’s, Charles, and St. Mary’s Counties. If you click on any of those counties in the CDC Data Tracker you’ll see that their hospitalization stats are always identical there because they’re not actually tracked separately.

    1. Author

      Ok yes I see but then why is MOCO so different?

      By the way, did you see the County added a note to the bottom of their chart to indicate that the data from 7/22 to 7/26 was bad and has been fixed? We’re now in “High” according to DHHS but we were not when we started digging about that data point.


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