8/2 Democratic County Executive Race Projection – Looking More And More In Favor Of Elrich

Introduction (Read this first)

These charts are similar and a follow up to our previous posts which can all be found here.

Updates And Remaining Votes To Count

  • So far to date there are at least 63,584 Democratic mail-ins received in Montgomery County and 55,286 mail-in votes tallied for the 4 County Executive candidates.
    • There are Actually AT LEAST 55,782 democratic mail in votes tabulated – this is the total for the U.S. Senator Race.
      • This means at least 496 left their County Executive ballot blank
      • It is possible (likely even?) that the race is decided by less people than left it blank.
    • There are another 8030 Provisional ballots that have not been counted yet.
      • Some of these provisional ballots have been tossed but estimated based on full count.

You can see Montgomery County Election Data here

8/3 Update Chart:

8/2 Current Race Totals

Projections

Disclosure – These are PROJECTIONS based on previous voting totals and remaining votes to count. These are NOT PREDICTIONS about what the final result will be.

Projection Table

Here is a part of the table that shows the exact number of current and projected votes and in the last column the difference between current and projected.

Where Are The Mail-Ins Coming From?

The past few days the mail-in ballots have favored Elrich by quite a bit. This is partially due to the makeup of the remaining mail-in ballots.

Here we look at which Council Districts the mail-in votes came today by looking at the County Council votes.

8/2/22 – Democratic counted mail-in votes

Here is the makeup of where Democratic counted mail-in votes came from today (8/2/22) which favored Elrich by 53 votes.

In this one, District 4 (Takoma Park/Silver Spring/North Bethesda) and District 3 (Gaithersburg/Rockville) both had over 20% and District 2 (Germantown/Clarksburg/Poolesville) was third at 17%.

8/1/22 – Democratic counted mail-in votes

Here is the makeup of where Democratic counted mail-in votes came from yesterday (8/1/22) which favored Elrich by relatively large margin.

You can see that here districts 1 and 4 (Bethesda/Potomac and Takoma Park/Silver Spring/North Bethesda) have the most with 2 and 7 the lowest (the more up county districts)

Prediction / Conclusion

At this point it is seeming more and more likely Elrich will win the initial vote unless late mail-ins favor Blair.

Even if Elrich and Blair were to remain even for the remaining mail in votes and Blair does as we have predicted winning provisional ballots by just a small margin, Elrich would retain a very slight lead.

It seems likely that the remaining days of mail-ins will hold similar patterns regarding the numbers favoring District 4 in particular and Elrich ending with a few hundred vote win.

The current projection stands at 264 votes – if the remaining mail-in votes and provisional votes follow patterns of previous mail-in votes and in person votes respectively.

Both actual and projection are within the .25% for a recount so that remains likely no matter who wins.

See previous analysis here

Voting Data Analysis Repository – 2022 Primary Election – Moderately MOCO