Visual Projections Of 2022 MD Governor Race Based On Mail-Ins So Far As Of 7/22/2022 – Does Perez Have A Chance

Notes – Read First

This projection is based on a small number of mail in ballots.

NBC and CBS and the AP have called the race for Wes Moore. He remains extremely likely to win but as you will see if you read on, I don’t believe it is locked up yet. Peter Franchot conceded, Team Perez did not.

Important to note that a few things about these projections before going on.

  1. These are based on estimates and projections based on a small subset of mail-in votes so far.
  2. Charts are based on the assumption that the patterns of mail-in ballots stay the same as now.
    1. However, the pattern may change as more are counted.
  3. Provisional Votes were excluded from estimation.

You can see Maryland Election Data here and see the data on Mail-In ballots here by county breakdown.

Data as of 7/22/2022 7:35pm (final chart shows 7/22 11pm data)

Current Actual Total Votes Have Moore Ahead By 6.38%

Projections Using Current Mail-In Ballot Make That Moore Lead Shrink to 3.97%

Perez gains only less than a half percent (.31%) but the big difference is Moore loses votes at a rate of -2.09% after the current patterns are applied to all received mail in ballots.

Franchot gains a1.78% by far the biggest winner in the mail in ballots.

Astonishingly, all of the other candidates stayed very close to their overall totals percentage.

Current Mail-In Ballot Data Undercounting

First off, all ballots postmarked by 7/19 8pm and received by 7/29 are counted. So there are still 7 more days where more ballots can come in.

Second is that there seem to be differences between current Maryland state counts vs what has been collected by local board of elections.

In Montgomery County, Councilmember Evan Glass tweeted (below) about 65,000+ mail-in votes received already. Montgomery County also has about 8,000 provisional ballots to go.

However, this data from the state has just 38,391 mail-in votes for all Montgomery County. There are also even more votes not accounted for locally yet, possibly thousands more. Of course, not all of these votes will be in the Democratic Primary and vote for one of these two for Governor either.

The data we used has 212,961 DEM Mail-In ballots received total.

If this is just one county, what about the rest? Perez is also running at 46.17% in Montgomery County.

Data Chart With 7/22/2022 11pm Update

At the 11pm data drop today, the gap between Wes Moore and Tom Perez tightened again as more mail in ballots are counted.

As discussed above, there are likely a lot more actual mail ins (and we didn’t include provisional here) than our projections can show.

Chart shows Projected Percentage for Team Moore to be 32.40% and 28.47% for Team Perez.

Conclusion

The higher total mail-in votes, the better the chances for any longshot upset here. If a lot more ballots come in, or are already in and not yet counted by the state, it might allow Perez to overcome Moore.

Franchot is too far out to mount a come back but the votes during mail-in he takes from Moore keep Perez in the race for now.

I’m no expert, but I do think this race is too early to call. Only time will tell.

More Reading

Did you like this analysis? See our similar analysis of the Montgomery County County Executive Race.

Montgomery County Executive 2022 Democratic Primary Projections After One Day Of Mail-In Votes Counted Now Tilted In Favor Of Incumbent Marc Elrich

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