May 20, 2024 – by Avniel Serkin-Ahmed (Founder of the Facebook group “All About DMV Politics”)
An analysis of what data tells us about the Maryland Primary Election results
We all have seen who won and lost in the 2024 Maryland Primary election but what does the voting data and numbers tell us about why certain candidates won and why certain candidates lost. I have always been a data and statistics-oriented guy. There’s a story behind every election race. The statistics and data are the paintbrush which paints the picture of each election win and loss. In this piece, using data, I will help paint the interesting story behind some of the Maryland primary election races.
David Trone discovers that winning central Maryland is the key to winning statewide races in Maryland
The Maryland Democratic Senator primary was the most talked about statewide race in this year’s primary election. It pitted Maryland Congressional District 6 House Representative David Trone versus Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. It seemed like on every channel, every YouTube video, we would see a David Trone commercial. There were more Trone signs around the streets of Maryland then there were road signs. Trone spent more then $60 million of his own money on this primary. Alsobrooks had a much quieter advertising campaign but she received some important endorsements including from popular Maryland Governor Democrat Wes Moore and well known Maryland House Representative, Democrat Jamie Raskin amongst other establishment Democratic endorsements. Despite all of his money and advertisements, Trone lost the primary election to Alsobrooks. With about 78 percent of the vote counted as of this writing on Friday May 17th, Alsobrooks has 279,832 votes which accounts for 52.9 % of the vote, Trone has 227,886 votes which accounts for 43.1% of the currently counted vote. Let’s take a look at the results county by county below in this election map. Blue are counties Alsobrooks won, green are counties Trone won.
Something immediately stands out doesn’t it? Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore are green. Central and most of Southern Maryland are blue. Alsobrooks won central Maryland and that is where the majority of Marylander’s live. Central Maryland is the largest population center in Maryland and statewide election races are determined by central Maryland. Trone found this out the hard way. Trone of course knows this since he is from our county, the central Maryland county of Montgomery. Alsobrooks knew this as well being from the central Maryland county of Prince George’s. A look inside the voting numbers of central Maryland tells the story of why Trone lost by nearly 10 % in what was suppose to be a close race. The next map shows the vote differential by county between Alsobrooks and Trone. The bigger the blue circle, the more Alsobrooks won by, the bigger the green circle, the more Trone won by.
That large blue circle is Alsobrooks home county of Prince George’s. She beat Trone there by a huge margin. 72.1% of the vote for her compared to 25.9 % of the vote for Trone. Alsobrooks won Prince George’s by almost 42,000 votes. She is winning statewide by about 52,000 votes. Trone to have a chance to win this primary election had to win big in his home county of Montgomery County to offset Alsobrooks huge win in PG County. However, as you see on the map, Montgomery County has a small blue circle meaning Alsobrooks is winning by a small amount in Montgomery. She has 49.4% of the vote in Montgomery County compared to 47.8% of the vote for Trone. She is up by about 1,600 votes in Montgomery County. Alsobrooks also won by a large margin in Baltimore City, the second largest blue circle on the map. She is up by about 18,000 votes in Baltimore City and has 59.6 % of the vote there compared to only 36.5 % of the vote for Trone. The votes in Montgomery, Prince George’s and Baltimore City paint the picture of why Alsobrooks won this election and why Trone lost it. Of notable note as well, is that Alsobrooks won by a substantial margin in the counties which have a large African American/Black population (Prince George’s, Charles and Baltimore City). Montgomery County has a large African American/Black population as well, Alsobrooks didn’t win big in Montgomery because it is Trone’s home county and he represents part of it in the US House, yet she did win it nonetheless.
Earlier this year, speaking during a House budget committee meeting Trone said: “So this Republican jigaboo that it’s the tax rate that’s stopping business investment, it’s completely faulty by people who have never run a business”. This abruptly became a short lived but nonetheless explosive and damaging story. Trone apologized and said he meant to say the word “bugaboo” not “jigaboo”. However the damage was done already and for sure it hurt him a bit in a primary race in which his main opponent is a African American/Black woman in a state with a large African American/Black population. Now if Trone didn’t make this stupid gaffe, would he have won the African American/Black vote over Alsobrooks? Probably not but it definitely hurt him and he probably would have at least won Montgomery County if he didn’t make this stupid gaffe. Alsobrooks will now face former Governor Hogan in the general election in a Senate race that could be the most competitive in Maryland in over 40 years. Speaking of competitive races….
In a crowded Democratic House primary in Congressional District 6 April McClain Delaney emerges as the victor
It seemed like everyone, their mom, dad, and cousins were running to replace David Trone as the Democratic House Representative in Maryland Congressional District 6. Maryland Congressional District 6 is a large district that covers Western Maryland, Frederick County and Northern Montgomery County including Clarksburg, Poolesville, Damascus, Germantown and Central/Northern Gaithersburg. There were 16 Democratic candidates in the primary. In the weeks before the election polling showed that April McClain Delaney, wife of former Maryland Congressional District 6 Representative John Delaney and Joe Vogel, a Maryland state House Representative who represents a Gaithersburg Maryland House District in Annapolis, rose to the top as the two frontrunners. A poll done on April 25th and 26th showed them in a statistical tie at 24 % each. The final poll done on May 6th and 7th had Delaney at 37 % and Vogel at 24 %. Delaney ended up winning by nearly 6,000 votes with 39.6 % of the currently counted vote as of Friday May 17th and Vogel received 26.5 % of the vote. As we see from the vote differential map below, she beat him in every county which comprises Maryland Congressional District 6.
He was only close to her in Garrett County where about only 1,000 Democrats voted in the primary. Vogel campaigned vigorously and even called me personally to try to attain my vote. However it wasn’t enough to beat establishment favorite Delaney. In between the second and the final poll, April McClain Delaney received the important endorsement from the Washinton Post. Like Alsobrooks, She also received the endorsement of Nancy Pelosi and well known US Democratic House Representative Jamie Raskin. Vogel also received endorsements from the Sierra Club, the Maryland Education Association and US Democratic Senator Cory Booker. Even with these endorsements and with a vigorous campaign push including personal outreach and TV ads it wasn’t enough for Joe Vogel to win. The Washington Post, Pelosi and Raskin endorsements helped Delaney for sure. Did the split vote hurt Vogel? The short answer is, it possibly did. Progressive former Obama Administration official Ashwani Jain received 8.5 % of the vote and progressive Mayor of Hagerstown, Tekesha Martinez received 7.2 % of the vote. In her home county of Washington County, Martinez won 17.2 % of the vote and Vogel only won 20 % of the vote there, making Washington County the part of District 6 he did the worse in. Also in the Montgomery County section of the District, Montgomery County Councilwoman Laurie Anne Sayles received 5.8 % of the vote and Lesley Lopez, another Maryland House Representative from Montgomery, received 6.4 % of the vote. Jain also received 9 % of the vote in the Montgomery County section of the district. Did Vogel’s unequivocal support of sending US weapons to Israel hurt him with the progressive Democratic vote? It is possible. Would he have won if there weren’t 15 other candidates in this race and it was just Delaney and him? Maybe but we cant say for sure where the other 34 % of the vote that Delaney and Vogel didn’t get, would have gone. Joe Vogel is only 27 years old, his political star definitely raised in this primary and I think he has a bright future ahead of him. Meanwhile April McClain Delaney will take on the Republican primary winner Neil Parrott in the general election in a race that could be key for which party controls the US House of Representatives. Speaking about the Maryland Congressional District 6 Republican primary….
Former Republican Gubernatorial candidate Dan Cox takes a political nosedive in the Maryland Congressional District 6 Republican primary
On the other side of the political aisle, in the Republican primary for Maryland Congressional House District 6, lawyer and the winner of this primary the past few election cycles, Neil Parrott, handedly defeated former Maryland House Representative and Gubernatorial candidate, MAGA Dan Cox. Parrott won by 7,500 votes and received 46.6 % of the currently counted vote as of Friday May 17th. Cox received 30.2 % of the currently counted vote as of Friday May 17th.
Now you will probably say “Avniel but you just said Parrott won this Republican primary the past few times so what makes him winning again stand out?” Well, Parrott had his first serious challenger in a while, a challenger in Dan Cox who was the Republican nominee for the top Maryland election race, the gubernatorial race. Neil Parrott is of course known in District 6 but Cox was endorsed for Governor by Trump and is known statewide. Cox beat former Governor Hogan’s endorsed Republican gubernatorial candidate Kelly Schultz in 2022 by 25,000 votes and 9 percent of the vote. Cox got 153,423 votes, 52 % of the vote in that gubernatorial primary. Fast forward two years, in his home congressional district primary, Cox only so far has 13,671 votes, only 30.2 % of the vote. This is shocking for a former statewide candidate. Cox the Maryland MAGA hero of 2022 couldn’t even win the Republican primary in the district he has lived in for decades, since he was a kid. Just like in the Alsobrooks versus Trone Democratic Senate primary race, this race was a tale of two counties. As you can see on the vote differential map below (largest yellow circle by Hagerstown), Parrott won huge in his home county of Washington County. Parrott won there by about 5,200 votes, he won the whole District primary by about 7,500 votes. Parrott won 60.1 % of the vote in Washington County compared to Cox only winning 20.9 %. To have any chance to win the this primary, Cox had to win big in his home county of Frederick County to offset Parrott’s huge win in Washington County. How did he do? Well just look at that tiny red circle on Frederick County. Cox is winning Frederick County but by only 54 votes. Cox has 37 % of the vote there and Parrott has 36.7 % of the vote there.
Cox, a former Republican candidate for the highest political office in Maryland couldn’t even win a majority of Republican voters in his home county where he has lived for decades. It is absolutely shocking. Oh how the mighty MAGA gubernatorial candidate from 2022 has fallen. This just goes to show how fast political fortunes can change. Speaking about Republicans who have ran for Maryland governor….
Former Maryland Governor Republican Larry Hogan easily defeats former Maryland House Representative Robin Ficker
When Larry Hogan announced that he was running for the US Senate in Maryland, I thought to myself, no way could he win the Republican primary. Maryland MAGA Republicans hate him, they call him Lockdown Larry. Super MAGA Dan Cox, who tried to impeach Hogan, beat Hogan’s handpicked gubernatorial candidate Kelly Schultz in the 2022 Republican primary. Hogan is anti Trump and I was waiting for Trump to endorse one of Hogan’s Republican competitors. It didn’t happen. Polling then came out which showed Hogan with a large lead. Once again Trump hates Hogan and Trump never even really mentioned this primary race. Therefore I was led to believe that team Trump doesn’t think any of Hogan’s competitors could beat him in the Republican primary (they have been trying to reduce the number of endorsement losses that Trump has). There were quite a few who were trying to beat Hogan: Robin Ficker, Lorie Friend, John Myrick, Chris Chaffee, and Moe Barakat. I think Robin Ficker has run in every election in Maryland at some point or another. He is a fiscally conservative election Energizer bunny who is always networking at events and is seemingly in every Maryland political group on Facebook. Ficker raised some money and started courting the MAGA and pro Trump Republican vote. I even saw a commercial of his on the CNN app. As polling progressed, Robin Ficker started to solidify his position as Hogan’s main challenger. The final poll had Robin jumping up to 18 % (up from 9 % in the previous poll) but still well behind Hogan. With momentum swinging a bit in his way, a few days before the election I predicted that he could get up to 30 – 35 % of the vote but would still lose to Hogan. As you see in the map below, Hogan easily won with 63 % of the currently counted vote as of Friday May 17th. Ficker won four less populated counties and came in at a distant 2nd with 28.9 % of the currently counted vote as of Friday May 17th.
Like I said earlier, oh how the political winds change fortunes fast. Two years ago Cox was the de facto leader of the Maryland Republican party now his star has faded and Maryland Republicans have come back to Hogan as their guy. Speaking of political fortunes, namely trying to predict the future of them….
What does the data of the Presidential Primaries paint for us
Breaking news: Biden won the Maryland Democratic presidential primary and Trump won the Maryland Republican presidential primary. Shocking, I know. Ha we knew they’d both win by large margins and they did. Biden will also surely win the blue state of Maryland in the general election in November. However what picture does the Maryland primary voting data paint for us about their national fortunes in the upcoming general election. With 82.8 % of the vote counted, Biden received 490,409 votes which is 87.1 % of the currently counted vote as of Friday May 17th. In the 2020 Democratic Maryland Presidential primary, Biden received 83.7 % of the vote. Who got second place? Uncommitted did with 9.8 % of the vote. Marianne Willaimson got 1.9 % of the vote and US House Representative Dean Phillips got 1.2 % of the vote. On the Republican side with 90.6 % of the votes counted of Friday May 17th, Trump received 205,044 votes which is 78.6 % of the currently counted vote as of May 17th. Trump in the 2020 Maryland Republican Presidential primary received 86.8 % of the vote. Former South Carolina Governor and US UN Ambassador Nikki Haley received 21.4 % of the vote even though she dropped out of the race months ago. Haley has received a similar vote share in other recent state primaries as she did in Maryland. This may mean that about 20 percent of Republican voters are Never Trumpers. Trump is slightly ahead of Biden in polling in most of the swing states. Will this 20 percent of Republicans who keep voting for Haley, vote for Biden in the general election? Will they vote for Kennedy or will they vote for President at all? These are valid questions that will help determine the winner of the Presidential election in November. If most of them do vote for Biden that could really help him but it’s not a given.
What picture does the Democratic presidential primary paint in Maryland? Every political junkie like myself has been watching the uncommitted vote in the Democratic presidential primaries. 9.8 % of Democrats who voted in the Maryland Democratic Presidential primary voted uncommitted. It may seem like a lot but the last time we had an incumbent Democratic President running in the primary was Obama in 2012 and 11.5 % voted uncommitted in that primary which is more then the 9.8 % uncommitted vote against Biden. Obama received 88.5 % of the total vote which is not that much higher then Biden’s current 87.1 % vote share in the 2024 primary. So now you are probably telling yourselves “Oh ok Avniel so this means Biden should win in November”. No it does not. It just means the vast majority of the Democratic party in Maryland supports Biden but it is independents and voter turnout which really decides modern presidential elections in the US. In terms of Democratic voter turnout and enthusiasm for Biden, there is a warning message in the data behind the uncommitted Democratic vote in Maryland.
The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) did an exit poll of Maryland Democrat Muslims who voted in the primary. They surveyed 374 Muslim Democratic voters in Maryland as they were coming out of the polls. They found that a whopping 95.9 % of them voted uncommitted in the Democratic Presidential primary. This is a uncommitted protest vote in response to Biden’s support of Israel’s war in Gaza and the Biden administration sending weapons to Israel during this war. Now even if a lot of Maryland Muslim Democratic and Arab Democratic voters don’t vote for Biden in November, Biden will still win Maryland. The much bigger problem is the crucial swing state of Michigan. Michigan is the state with the highest percentage of Arabs/Muslims in the US. Arabs make up 2.1 % of Michigan’s population, above 211,000 people in the state. If many of them don’t vote for Biden in November, it could cost him Michigan and ultimately the election.
Speaking of elections, I have one final set of local election primaries to paint a picture of…..
It is not good to be a Montgomery County Board of Education incumbent
Now as you can see by now, I am a hardcore political junkie and data painter. However honestly I don’t follow Board of Education (BoE) elections as closely as I could. I do know however many loyal readers of Moderately MoCo do so I delved a bit into the data of the Montgomery County Board of Education primary elections this year. The Montgomery County Education Association (also known as MCEA, who passes out the red apple shaped endorsement cards in front of polls during Montgomery County elections) actually endorsed all non incumbent Board of Education candidates this year. They endorsed second grade teacher Natalie Zimmerman (District 2), PTA volunteer Laura Stewart (District 4) and lawyer/juvenile justice public defender Rita Montoya (At-Large). The MCEA didn’t like when the incumbent board members opened schools back up for in person learning during the pandemic against their wishes. The MCEA also didn’t like that the BoE incumbents mishandled the sexual harassment complaints about former MCPS principal Joel Beidleman, that was a huge mess and controversy. So the MCEA endorsed all non incumbent candidates and apparently those red apple shaped MCEA endorsement cards really work. Because all three of their endorsements made it into the top two in their respective BoE primary elections. The top two candidates in each district move on to the general election in November. Natalie Zimmerman (46.1 % of the currently counted votes as of May 17th) and Laura Stewart (47.3 % of the currently counted votes as of May 17th) both received the most votes in the district 2 and district 4 BoE primaries. Rita Montoya (31 % of the currently counted votes as of May 17th) is in an extremely close second in the At-Large election. With 26.9 % of the currently counted votes as of May 17th, incumbent Shebra Evans was a distant second in the district 4 election to Stewart, Evans did however hold off Bethany Mandel (25.8 % of the currently counted votes as of May 17th), a far right journalist and Mom’s for Liberty BoE candidate. Stewart and Evans will advance to the general election in November. In district 2 incumbent Rebecca Smondrowski placed third with 16.9 % of the currently counted vote as of May 17th and wont even be going on to the general election, Brenda Diaz beat her for second place with 22.3 % of the currently counted vote as of May 17th. Zimmerman and Diaz will be going on to the general election in November. The only incumbent who got the highest vote share in their primary was Lynne Harris who won 31.1 % of the currently counted (May 17th) At Large primary vote, Rita Montoya is in a very close second with 31 %, Melissa Kim got 15.4 % of the currently counted vote as of May 17th. Harris and Montoya will advance to the general election in November.
Closing Thoughts
I would like to thank Jason Makstein of Moderately MOCO for giving me a chance to use my political junkie skills and obsession with data to write this article. Thank you Jason, I have always loved Moderately MoCo.
If you have any questions, want to continue this discussion, or want to delve into other discussions, I can be found in the Facebook group “All About DMV Politics”.
Thank you to all of the Moderately MOCO readers. Remember the next time you are looking at election results, try to see the picture the data paints for you.
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