Montgomery County Executive 2022 Democratic Primary Projections After One Day Of Mail-In Votes Counted Now Tilted In Favor Of Incumbent Marc Elrich

Notes – Read First

This projection is based on a small number of mail in ballots. It is far from final – read prediction at the end. I predict this will go back and forth and not be final for many days still.

Important to note that a few things about these projections before going on.

  1. These are based on estimates and projections based on a small subset of mail-in votes so far.
  2. Mail-In votes are counted in the order received.
    1. Charts assume that the patterns of mail-in ballots stay the same as now.
    2. However, the pattern may change as more are counted (example: Elrich approval rating dropped after negative ads and Post support of Blair which likely started after first mail-ins sent back)
  3. Estimated Provisional votes per candidate were calculated first based upon estimating Democratic proportion of in person CE votes and then using each CE candidates proportion.

You can see Montgomery County Election Data here

Current Actual Total Votes Have Blair In Lead

7/21/22 Actual total vote data still shows David Blair in the lead

7/21 Data Projection Shows Elrich Winning – Though It Is Likely Closer Than It Looks

We will continue to look at this as more days of mail-in and provisional voting data come in and see if Elrich’s massive lead in mail-in votes remains a pattern. It may be several more days before the overall mail-in voting pattern becomes clear.

Montgomery County Executive Race Projections for 2022 Primary show a path to victory for Marc Elrich if mail-in ballot patterns hold

Prediction

I think what will happen is that over time the % of mail-in votes will turn towards Blair but may not end up being enough. I expect the final result will end up much closer to the 77 vote difference than the almost 4000 vote difference in this first projection.

As more votes come in we will update the projection and include the rate of change of the mail in ballots to see if that starts to change.

If you remove the light blue on the right side of the charts (the projected mail in votes), you can see the current totals and how super close they are.

More Reading

Did you like this analysis? See our similar analysis of the Maryland Democratic Governor Race.

Visual Projections Of 2022 MD Governor Race Based On Mail-Ins So Far As Of 7/22/2022 – Does Perez Have A Chance

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