Over the past few weeks, we keep seeing that our County’s number of positives per day keeps increasing and I’m sure many are wondering what that means and what the current detailed stats (as of 11/08/2020) reflect for Moco.
When this page first started we were doing daily analysis of the data. Daily isn’t necessary but expect more detailed analysis like this.
Positives vs. Testing
Now, typically, just because positives go up does not necessarily mean there is cause for concern. In past posts, we’ve discussed how increased testing alone can lead to increased positive tests. The old dashboard shows more data such as the number of tests administered 3,910 3-day average.
In recent weeks while the positivity counts (positive tests per day per 100k populations) have been increasing, there has NOT been a noticeably large increase in testing
Here is a look at the number of new daily cases over the past few weeks. It’s clearly increasing.
Positivity Rate
Additionally, the positivity rate has been slowly rising even though it is still pretty low which is helped somewhat by our testing policies to stay low.
Hospitalizations
As you can see in these charts, the number of covid hospitalizations has begun to increase. It is approaching levels last seen in July.
Looking at the following chart, the % of total ICU beds that are being use for covid has been increasing because the total ICU stays the same while % covid increases.
We have also gotten word anonymously from a local ICU nurse that at least one local hospital is opening up an additional covid ward. This would be due to the increased hospitalizations.
Conclusions
So what does that mean? We’re likely just beginning our next wave locally. Expect numbers to continue to get worse eventually leading to more hospitalizations and deaths (though not as bad as before due to better medical processes).
Expect the county to continue steps back to begin closing more things in the next few weeks especially if positivity rate and/or hospitalizations continue to increase.
I recommend to keep vigilant with distancing, masking and staying out of indoor areas with others as much as possible in coming weeks.
Dashboard Links
Here is the link to the new dashboard: https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/
Old Dashboard: https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiNDNjNmE0YzgtYzgzMy00MDVhLTg3NmMtNmI4YTcxZWE3NmEzIiwidCI6IjZlMDFiMWY5LWIxZTUtNDA3My1hYzk3LTc3ODA2OWEwYWQ2NCJ9&pageName=ReportSection354bda1a16df3b67411a