Comparative Analysis of Crown / Damascus High School Boundary Study Options

June 16, 2025 – Analysis Report conducted by The MoCo AI Company

Overview

Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) is evaluating four proposed redistricting scenarios related to the re-opening of Woodward High School. This report summarizes the relative performance of each option across three primary evaluation categories:

• Commute distance and travel time
• Articulation from middle to high school
• Articulation from elementary to middle school

The study analyzes 169 school assignments using road distances from Google Maps, articulation complexity scoring, and a weighted evaluation model reflecting planning priorities.

The full MCPS maps are here: https://sites.google.com/mcpsmd.net/crowninitialoptions/home/crown-initial-options?authuser=0

The official MCPS feedback form is here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScFJdfdw3J1V0hIMZI440SsK5P40X-SRTNRrMQla-mbI0g3PA/viewform

The full data report by The MoCo AI Company is here: https://moderatelymoco.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/crown_analysis_comprehensive_report_20250616_075145.txt

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Evaluation Framework

Note: this is an early age model and only looking at transportation and articulation. Other factors will be evaluated in future evolutions of this model and the weighted framework will be tweaked.

The analysis uses a weighted framework to assess each option:

• Distance / Travel Time – 60%
• Middle to High School Articulation – 30%
• Elementary to Middle School Articulation – 10%

Scores are assigned to each option in each category and then aggregated using the weighted structure to generate an overall ranking. Articulation complexity is calculated based on the number of schools with split assignments and the severity of those splits (e.g., two-way, three-way, or four-way splits).

Methodology Note: Travel distances were calculated from each elementary school to its assigned high school in each boundary option using estimated road travel distances. This analysis uses school locations, not individual home addresses, so the numbers reflect general patterns rather than individual student experiences. A uniform travel speed of 25 mph is assumed for this model. Full methodology is at the end of the article.

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Summary of Overall Rankings

Option	Weighted Score	Avg Road Distance	MS→HS Complexity	ES→MS Split Count
1	1.00	2.64 miles	10	1 school
2	2.00	2.59 miles	16	15 schools
3	3.00	3.05 miles	14	12 schools
4	4.00	2.52 miles	16	14 schools

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Travel Distance and Commute Efficiency

Why It Matters: Shorter, more efficient commutes reduce student fatigue, improve safety, and lower transportation costs. Commutes were calculated using a combination of Google Maps API routes and fallback estimates.

Option	Avg Road Distance	Avg Travel Time	Short Trips (≤1.8 mi)
1	2.64 miles	7.2 minutes	23 of 42
2	2.59 miles	7.1 minutes	20 of 45
3	3.05 miles	8.3 minutes	18 of 41
4	2.52 miles	6.9 minutes	22 of 41

Distance Category Rankings:

1. Option 4
2. Option 2
3. Option 1
4. Option 3

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Middle to High School Articulation

Why It Matters: Stable middle-to-high school pathways minimize student disruption and maintain continuity in peer groups and academic support networks. Complexity scores account for both the number of split schools and the depth of splits.

Option	Middle Schools with Splits	Split Rate	Complexity Score
1	5 of 14	35.7%	10
2	6 of 14	42.9%	16
3	5 of 14	35.7%	14
4	8 of 14	57.1%	16

Articulation Rankings (MS → HS):

1. Option 1
2. Option 3
3. Option 2
4. Option 4

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Elementary to Middle School Articulation

Why It Matters: While these transitions have less long-term impact than MS→HS, a high number of split elementary schools can complicate transportation planning and weaken neighborhood alignment.

Option	ES→MS Splits	Split Rate
1	1 of 42	2.4%
3	12 of 42	28.6%
4	14 of 42	33.3%
2	15 of 42	35.7%

Articulation Rankings (ES → MS):

1. Option 1
2. Option 3
3. Option 4
4. Option 2

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Comparative Table of Rankings by Category

Option	Distance Rank	MS→HS Rank	ES→MS Rank	Weighted Score
1	3	1	1	1.00
2	2	3	4	2.00
3	4	2	2	3.00
4	1	4	3	4.00

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Technical Notes

• Distance Source: Google Maps API (100% coverage)
• Driving Speed Assumption: 22 mph
• Articulation Complexity Formula: Split count × (split count − 1)
• Study Name: woodward_redistricting
• Analysis Date: June 16, 2025
• Analyst: MCPS Analysis Team
• Data Processing: The MoCo AI Company
• Configuration Files and Raw Data: Archived for verification

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Additional Context for Review

Note: this is an early age model and only looking at transportation and articulation. Other factors will be evaluated in future evolutions of this model.

As MCPS evaluates these boundary options, decision-makers may also consider:

• School capacity alignment and enrollment forecasts
• Bus route cost and timing implications
• Community input and neighborhood continuity
• Equity of access to new and existing school facilities

This comparative report is intended to support transparency and informed discussion during the planning and review process.

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Full Methodology and Sources

Distance Calculations:

• Distances were calculated using road-based routing between each elementary and high school.
• Times for walking or bus travel were not factored into the final distance tables, but may be included in future iteration of our tool.
• Locations were extracted from MCPS public ArcGIS data and verified via internal mapping tools.

Split Articulation Analysis:

• A split was recorded when a middle school’s graduates were assigned to more than one high school in a given plan.
• These were counted based on school assignment mappings from the boundary proposal data files.

Utilization Rates:

• Projected student enrollment was matched against school capacity data, using information from MCPS reports and the boundary study GIS attributes.

Sources:

• MCPS ArcGIS data portal
• Crown-Damascus Boundary Study App
• Analysis performed using custom-built Python scripts developed by The MoCo AI Company

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