Introduction (Read this first)

These charts are similar and a follow up to our previous posts which can all be found here.

Updates And Remaining Votes To Count

• Per MOCO Board of Elections, There are NO REMAINING mail in ballots

Mail-in=ZERO, NADA, ZILCH…
Unless we are able to cure any Mail-in w/ missing Voter's Oath signature. Deadline, Saturday, August 6 (12PM). 🕛 @777Vote staff have made every effort to contact voters. ✒️ pic.twitter.com/JX8oVagWnD

— MontgomeryMDVotes (@777Vote) August 6, 2022

• There are another 7,250-8,000 Provisional ballots that have not been counted yet.
  • Have heard a few things about this number so averaging the two for current projection. Blair fans want as many provisional ballots as possible.
  • Our estimates on provisional ballots are based on 2 parameters:
    • Early Voting / Election day % of ballots Democrat
    • Early Voting / Election day % of ballots for David Blair and Marc Elrich

You can see Montgomery County Election Data here

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Projection Table

Here is our actual and projection table which has a little extra information this time (zoom in or save to see good)

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Quick TikTok Video Explainer

@moderatelymoco

8/5/22 Montgomery County Executive Race Elrich gains 44 votes on day to increase lead to lead 198. This chart Projected lead Elrich leads by a mere 83 votes for possibly our final projection. See website full charts and details: https://moderatelymoco.com/8-5-democratic-county-executive-update-actuals-and-projections-elrich-solidifies-leads-after-all-mail-in-ballots-finished-being-counted-only-provisional-ballots-remaining-possibly-our-final-proj/ #countyexecutive #mocomd #2022primaries #votelocal #localelections #beinformed #localelections2022 #montgomerycountymd #politics #marylandpolitics #localnews #politicssimplified

♬ Blade Runner 2049 – Synthwave Goose

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Projections

Disclosure – These are PROJECTIONS based on previous voting totals and remaining votes to count. These are NOT PREDICTIONS about what the final result will be.

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Conclusion / Prediction

Team Blair didn’t get that last bump of mail-in ballots and Elrich did.

Right now the projections show that Elrich will win.

There is still a decent chance that the actuals on provisional ballots are different from early voting and election day voting because it could be different demographics that are voting in these ways vs provisional.

But will it be enough to overcome the additional 70-90 votes (depending on number of provisional ballots)? Probably not.

This may be our last projection depending on how the Provisionals drop. We will only do another if provisional ballots end up quite different than projected.

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