Why the Montgomery County Executive Race Has Not Been Called Yet: The Math Behind the Jawando-Friedson Race

Many Montgomery County voters are asking the same question following Tuesday’s primary election results: why hasn’t the Democratic primary for Montgomery County Executive been called?

The answer comes down to one thing: mail-in ballots.

While Will Jawando currently holds a substantial lead following the completion of all Election Day precinct reporting, tens of thousands of mail-in ballots remain to be canvassed, leaving the race mathematically unresolved.

Jawando Holds a 6,549-Vote Lead

With all 257 Election Day precincts reporting, current results show:

• Will Jawando: 36,517 votes (40.84%)
• Andrew Friedson: 29,968 votes (33.51%)

That gives Jawando a lead of 6,549 votes.

At first glance, that may appear large enough to call the race. However, a significant number of mail-in ballots remain uncounted.

According to Montgomery County District 3 Democratic Central Committee member Jud Ashman, the Montgomery County Board of Elections is scheduled to begin canvassing additional mail-in ballots on Thursday and continue again on Saturday. The first updated results are expected Thursday night or Friday morning.

Meanwhile, At-Large County Council candidate Scott Goldberg has estimated that approximately 40,000 to 50,000 mail-in ballots remain outstanding, although election officials have not yet released an official count.

Mail-In Ballots Have Favored Friedson

The reason observers are still watching the race closely is that Friedson has performed significantly better among mail-in voters than among voters who cast ballots in person.

So far, 17,139 mail-in ballots have been counted.

Among those ballots:

• Friedson has received 6,691 mail-in votes.
• Jawando has received 5,291 mail-in votes.

That gives Friedson a mail-in advantage of approximately 1,400 votes.

While that advantage has not been enough to erase Jawando’s overall lead, it has narrowed the margin and provides Friedson with a potential path to gain ground as additional ballots are counted.

The Key Question: How Many Mail-In Ballots Remain?

Rather than focusing on percentages, the more important question may be whether enough ballots remain for Friedson’s mail-in advantage to make a difference.

Based on the mail-in ballots counted so far, Friedson has gained approximately 82 votes on Jawando for every 1,000 mail-in ballots processed.

If that trend continues:

• 40,000 remaining mail-in ballots would net Friedson approximately 3,268 votes.
• 50,000 remaining mail-in ballots would net Friedson approximately 4,085 votes.
• 60,000 remaining mail-in ballots would net Friedson approximately 4,902 votes.

Under each of those scenarios, Jawando would still maintain a lead.

To completely erase his current 6,549-vote deficit while maintaining the same mail-in advantage seen so far, Friedson would need approximately 80,000 additional mail-in ballots remaining to be counted.

Current public estimates have generally placed the number of outstanding ballots well below that figure.

How Does This Compare to 2022?

For context, Montgomery County voters cast a substantial number of mail-in ballots during the 2022 Democratic primary for County Executive.

In that race:

• Marc Elrich received 27,472 mail-in and provisional votes.
• David Blair received 26,113 mail-in and provisional votes.
• More than 67,000 mail-in and provisional ballots were counted across all candidates.

The final margin between Elrich and Blair was just 32 votes, demonstrating how important mail-in ballots can be in Montgomery County elections.

The comparison also provides a useful benchmark for understanding the current discussion about outstanding ballots. If estimates of 40,000 to 50,000 remaining mail-in ballots prove accurate, the final mail-in vote total in 2026 could end up approaching the scale seen in 2022.

Why the Race Has Not Been Called

Based on the voting patterns seen so far, the math currently favors Jawando.

While Friedson continues to outperform his overall vote share among mail-in voters, the number of outstanding ballots currently being discussed appears lower than what would be needed for him to overcome Jawando’s 6,549-vote lead if current trends remain consistent.

However, election analysts, campaigns, and observers are still waiting for additional canvass results because tens of thousands of ballots remain uncounted and the exact number of outstanding mail-in ballots has not yet been officially confirmed.

For now, the Montgomery County Executive race remains uncalled—not because the outcome is impossible to project, but because enough ballots remain outstanding that election officials and observers are waiting for additional results before making a final determination.

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