Who Will Win the Final At-Large County Council Seat? The Math Behind Montgomery County’s Closest Race

While much of the attention following Tuesday’s primary has focused on the race for Montgomery County Executive, the closest contest on the ballot may actually be for the fourth and final Democratic nomination for Montgomery County Council At-Large.

With all 257 Election Day precincts reporting, three candidates appear to hold relatively comfortable positions. The battle for the final seat, however, has become exceptionally tight.

Where the Race Stands

Current results show:

Candidate	Total Votes
Marc Elrich	47,949
Laurie-Anne Sayles	40,597
Scott Goldberg	39,079
Fatmata Barrie	33,862
Karla Silvestre	33,600
Josie Caballero	30,079

Barrie currently leads Silvestre by just 262 votes for the fourth and final nomination.

Just one day earlier, Barrie’s advantage was approximately 840 votes, meaning Silvestre cut the deficit by nearly 600 votes during the latest mail-in canvass, which added more than 18,600 At-Large votes from just over 5,000 additional mail-in ballots.

Caballero remains mathematically alive, trailing Barrie by 3,783 votes, but the voting patterns counted so far suggest the race has largely narrowed to Barrie and Silvestre.

Why the Focus Is on Fourth Place

While four Democratic candidates will ultimately advance, current voting patterns suggest three candidates have established relatively comfortable positions.

Marc Elrich has continued to expand his lead through the mail vote, while both Laurie-Anne Sayles and Scott Goldberg have also strengthened their positions as additional ballots have been counted. Based on the voting patterns seen so far, none of those three appear to be in immediate danger of falling out of the top four.

That leaves the race for the final nomination, where Fatmata Barrie currently holds a slim 262-vote lead over Karla Silvestre. Unlike the candidates above them, Silvestre has consistently outperformed Barrie in the mail vote, rapidly shrinking what was roughly an 840-vote deficit just one day earlier.

Why Mail-In Ballots Matter

One important distinction in this race is the difference between ballots and votes.

Unlike the County Executive race, where each voter casts one vote, Democratic voters could select up to four candidates in the At-Large contest.

So far:

• 22,513 mail-in ballots have been counted in the County Executive race.
• Those same ballots produced 76,912 At-Large candidate votes, or an average of 3.42 At-Large selections per ballot.

As a result, estimates of 35,000 to 45,000 remaining mail-in ballots could translate into roughly 120,000 to 154,000 additional At-Large votes, depending on how many candidates voters selected.

Mail-In Voting Has Favored Silvestre

Among the 76,912 At-Large mail-in votes counted so far:

• Karla Silvestre has received 7,960
• Fatmata Barrie has received 6,584
• Josie Caballero has received 6,176

Silvestre has gained 1,376 votes on Barrie through mail-in voting alone.

By contrast, Caballero has received 408 fewer mail-in votes than Barrie, meaning she has not been closing the gap through the mail vote counted so far.

What the Current Trends Suggest

Using the At-Large mail-in votes counted so far, Silvestre has gained approximately 18 net votes on Barrie for every 1,000 At-Large mail-in votes counted.

If the remaining 35,000 to 45,000 mail-in ballots produce At-Large voting patterns similar to those already counted, they would likely generate enough additional At-Large votes for Silvestre to continue gaining ground.

Based on current voting patterns:

• 35,000 remaining ballots would be expected to generate roughly 120,000 At-Large votes, enough to project Silvestre into fourth place by approximately 1,900 votes.
• 40,000 remaining ballots would generate roughly 137,000 At-Large votes, increasing that projected margin.
• 45,000 remaining ballots would generate roughly 154,000 At-Large votes, further extending the projected advantage.

These projections assume that the remaining mail-in ballots resemble those already counted, both in candidate preference and in the average number of At-Large selections per ballot.

Is Caballero Still in Contention?

Mathematically, yes.

However, the current data suggests a much steeper climb.

Caballero trails Barrie by 3,783 votes and, unlike Silvestre, has not gained ground in the mail-in votes counted so far. Unless the remaining ballots differ substantially from those already canvassed, her path to the final nomination appears considerably more difficult.

What to Watch Next

With Elrich, Sayles, and Goldberg holding sizable advantages over the rest of the field, the battle for the fourth and final Democratic nomination has become one of the most intriguing races in Montgomery County.

Barrie currently holds the final qualifying position, but Silvestre has steadily chipped away at that lead through successive mail-in canvasses, shrinking what was roughly an 840-vote deficit just one day ago to only 262 votes today.

The question is no longer whether Silvestre can make up ground—she already has.

The questions now are how many mail-in ballots remain, how many At-Large votes those ballots ultimately produce, and whether those votes continue to resemble the mail-in voting patterns seen so far.

If current trends continue and estimates of 35,000 to 45,000 outstanding mail-in ballots prove accurate, the race for the fourth and final Democratic nomination could still see another lead change before the final canvass is complete.

Moderately MOCO will continue tracking each canvass and updating these projections as additional election results are released.

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