Background and Source Data
High school enrollment in MCPS was analyzed for the years 2018 to 2022. Grade 8 enrollment was included as a baseline for grade 9 enrollment in the subsequent year.
Official enrollment numbers are found in the “Official Reports of Enrollment” on the MCPS Office of Shared Accountability web page.
Results and Conclusions
The number of students per year is shown. The year indicates enrollment on Sept 30 of that year, i.e., 2022 is for the 2022-2023 school year or class of 2023. Color coding indicates a cohort class throughout high school, e.g., the graduating class of 2022 is colored red, and it had 13,595 9th graders in fall 2018 and 11,611 seniors in fall of 2021.
The number of students per a particular grade each year has varied. 2018 and 2022 numbers were compared. Ninth grade had the largest increase (1,667 students), while 11th grade had the largest decrease (627 students).
| 2018 | 2022 | Change in Student Number | |
| Grade 8 | 11,991 | 12,214 | 223 |
| Grade 9 | 13,595 | 15,262 | 1,667 |
| Grade 10 | 13,081 | 13,957 | 876 |
| Grade 11 | 11,560 | 10,933 | -627 |
| Grade 12 | 11,079 | 11,798 | 719 |
The individual class cohorts showed a large increase in students between grades 8 and 9.
| Cohort Year 1 | Cohort Year 2 | Color | Change in Student Number |
| Grade 8 2018 | Grade 9 2019 | Light blue | 2,428 |
| Grade 8 2019 | Grade 9 2020 | Light green | 1,774 |
| Grade 8 2020 | Grade 9 2021 | Yellow | 2,490 |
| Grade 8 2021 | Grade 9 2022 | Orange | 2,779 |
However, there was a decrease in students in a cohort between grades 9 and 10.
| Cohort Year 1 | Cohort Year 2 | Color | Change in Student Number |
| Grade 9 2018 | Grade 10 2019 | Red | -518 |
| Grade 9 2019 | Grade 10 2020 | Light blue | -1,019 |
| Grade 9 2020 | Grade 10 2021 | Light green | -1,321 |
| Grade 9 2021 | Grade 10 2022 | Yellow | -940 |
There was a larger decrease in students in a cohort between grades 10 and 11.
| Cohort Year 1 | Cohort Year 2 | Color | Change in Student Number |
| Grade 10 2018 | Grade 11 2019 | Turquoise | -1,477 |
| Grade 10 2019 | Grade 11 2020 | Red | -1,552 |
| Grade 10 2020 | Grade 11 2021 | Light blue | -2,249 |
| Grade 10 2021 | Grade 11 2022 | Light green | -1,843 |
There were smaller differences in student numbers in a cohort between grades 11 and 12.
| Cohort Year 1 | Cohort Year 2 | Color | Change in Student Number |
| Grade 11 2018 | Grade 12 2019 | Purple | -228 |
| Grade 11 2019 | Grade 12 2020 | Turquoise | -107 |
| Grade 11 2020 | Grade 12 2021 | Red | 86 |
| Grade 11 2021 | Grade 12 2022 | Light blue | 647 |
Two cohorts could be followed for 4 years of high school (2018-2021, red) and (2019-2022, light blue). Both showed a large decrease in students from grade 9 to grade 12.
| Cohort | Grade 9 | Grade 12 | Change in Number of Students |
| 2018-2021 Cohort | 13,595 | 11,611 | -1,984 |
| 2019-2022 Cohort | 14,419 | 11,798 | -2,621 |
It is possible that the large influx of students into grade 9 could come from other countries, areas of the US or Maryland, or private school/homeschool students in Montgomery County. MCPS and the Board of Education discussed preparations for 3,000 to 4,000 students they categorized as unaccompanied minors/newcomers and expected the majority to be teenage males.
Some possibilities for the large decreases in students between grades 10 and 11 could be students held back in the previous grade, students dropping out of school, or students moving out of Montgomery County or into private school/homeschool. The data do not have the level of detail to determine this.
Similar Post – Maryland Enrollment Projections
Recent Posts
- Shaping the Future: MCPS Boundary Study and CIP Developments for November 2024
- Leaves of Change: Jessica Landman and the Fall of the Incumbents in Takoma Park
- MoCoClosures Winter Forecast 2024-25
- Montgomery County Public Schools Celebrates Veterans Day at the REACH Hub at A. Mario Loiederman Middle School
- 2024 Rolling General Election Results for Montgomery County and Maryland
