Omar Lazo’s Lead Grows to 7,879 in Uncalled School Board Race After Saturday Mail Count

Omar Lazo’s lead over Brenda M. Diaz in the race for the at-large seat on the Montgomery County Board of Education grew to 7,879 votes after another batch of mail-in ballots was counted Saturday, according to unofficial State Board of Elections results. The race has not been called.

Lazo has 145,616 votes (51.0%) to Diaz’s 137,737 (48.3%), according to the board’s Montgomery County results page, last refreshed at 9:37 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 7. After Thursday’s count, Lazo led by 5,974.

Saturday’s mail-in count

Saturday’s updates added mail-in votes only. In this race, Lazo’s mail-in total rose from 26,122 to 32,105, and Diaz’s from 26,115 to 30,193. That is 5,983 new mail-in votes for Lazo and 4,078 for Diaz, so Lazo won about 59% of the new mail-in votes cast for the two candidates. Across all mail-in ballots counted so far, Lazo leads Diaz 32,105 to 30,193.

Vote type	Omar Lazo	Brenda M. Diaz
Early voting	41,926	37,691
Election Day	71,585	69,853
Mail-in (counted so far)	32,105	30,193
Provisional	Not yet counted	Not yet counted
Total	145,616	137,737

What is still out

The state’s most recent mail-in ballot report, as of Nov. 6, shows 106,548 mail-in ballots received in Montgomery County. About 78,500 mail-in ballots have been counted so far, based on the mail-in total in the governor’s race on the county results page, which leaves roughly 28,000 received ballots still to be counted. That is our estimate from the state’s figures, not a number the state reports.

Mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day can still arrive, and provisional ballots will be canvassed beginning Nov. 12, according to a State Board of Elections news release (page 2).

Our earlier update and video explainer walk through how this math works.

Race nears its end

Moderately MOCO calls a race when the trailing candidate can no longer realistically catch up with the ballots left. Diaz would need about 62% of the votes still out in this race, counting the roughly 28,000 received mail-in ballots not yet counted plus an estimate of late-arriving mail-in and provisional ballots. She has 48.6% of the two-candidate vote overall, and won about 42% and 41% in the two mail-in counts since election night. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.

If the next mail-in count looks like Saturday’s, about 12,000 ballots with Lazo winning about 59% of the two-candidate vote, Diaz would then need about 70% of everything left. We will update this race after each count.

The latest numbers in every Montgomery County race are on our live results page. Results are unofficial until every ballot is counted and the county certifies them.

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