In Montgomery and Prince George’s, Moore Leads by 54 Points. Statewide It’s 27.

The new UMBC Poll shows Governor Wes Moore beating Republican Dan Cox by 54 points among likely voters in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties, 67 percent to 13 percent. Statewide his lead is half that, 51 percent to 24 percent.

The poll does not break out Montgomery County on its own. It does publish a combined Washington-area subgroup of Montgomery and Prince George’s voters, about 241 of the 776 people surveyed, and on nearly every question that group looks different from the state it belongs to.

Three in Four Here Will Not Vote on Election Day

This is the finding with the most immediate consequences locally, because the deadlines are already running.

• 40 percent of Montgomery and Prince George’s likely voters plan to vote by mail or drop box. Statewide, 31 percent.
• 34 percent plan to vote in person during early voting. Statewide, 30 percent.
• 23 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day. Statewide, 35 percent.

Put together, about three in four likely voters in the two counties plan to use something other than an Election Day polling place. Statewide that figure is about six in ten.

The poll asked which method people would use, not when they would cast a ballot, and a mail ballot can still be dropped off through 8 p.m. on Election Day. Even so, the practical effect locally is that the election is already underway. The mail-in ballot canvass begins October 13, early voting runs October 22 through October 29, and the deadline to register online or by mail is October 13, with same-day registration still available during early voting and on Election Day.

Here, Voters Are Easier on the Democratic Party

Likely voters were asked whether a list of characteristics describes each state party. Statewide, majorities said the Maryland Democratic Party is out of touch and controlled by special interests. In Montgomery and Prince George’s, neither reached a majority.

• Out of touch with average voters: 48 percent in the two counties, 54 percent statewide.
• Controlled by special interests or big donors: 46 percent locally, 59 percent statewide.
• Welcomes different viewpoints: 58 percent locally, 47 percent statewide.
• Too extreme in their policy positions: 27 percent locally, 36 percent statewide.

The Maryland Republican Party is viewed about the same in both places, and worse than the Democrats on these measures. In the two counties, 68 percent said out of touch describes the Republican Party and 76 percent said it is controlled by special interests.

Local voters also read Moore differently. Here, 48 percent describe him as a moderate; statewide, 36 percent do. And 32 percent of local likely voters could not place Cox ideologically at all, against 26 percent statewide.

The Statewide Picture

Across Maryland, Moore takes 51 percent to Cox’s 24 percent. Green Party candidate Andy Ellis draws 3 percent and Working Class Party candidate Cathy White draws 3 percent. Five percent name some other candidate and 14 percent say they do not know or have not decided.

Moore’s 51 percent is a preference today, not a lock. By the poll’s own follow-up, 84 percent of his supporters say they are set on their choice, which works out to roughly 43 percent of all likely voters. Among Cox supporters, 74 percent say they are set.

The undecided rate is highest among voters registered with neither party. Among unaffiliated likely voters, 40 percent back Moore, 14 percent back Cox and 27 percent are undecided, more than double the Democratic share and nearly triple the Republican share. Unaffiliated voters are a small slice of the sample, so that comparison carries a wide error margin.

Statewide, 26 percent of likely voters could not say which ideological label fits Cox and another 1 percent refused, so better than a quarter did not place him. For Moore the equivalent figure is 8 percent. Among all likely voters, 31 percent call Cox very conservative and 29 percent conservative; 36 percent call Moore a moderate and 48 percent call him progressive or very progressive.

On the party characteristics, the Republican Party scored worse statewide on five of the six measures tested. On the sixth, whether the party is organized, the two were effectively tied at 47 percent for Democrats and 43 percent for Republicans, a gap inside the poll’s margin of error.

How Much to Trust the Local Numbers

The Montgomery and Prince George’s figures come from the crosstabs UMBC publishes alongside the release, not from the headline report, and they deserve more caution than the statewide numbers.

• The subgroup is Montgomery and Prince George’s combined. Nothing here describes Montgomery County by itself.
• The subgroup is about 241 respondents, which carries a margin of error of roughly 6 percentage points, nearly double the statewide figure.
• The crosstab percentages are unweighted, while the statewide toplines are weighted. The difference is small. Moore’s statewide share reads 50.5 percent unweighted against 51 percent weighted, but it is a real difference in method.

Those caveats cut against precision, not direction. A 54-point margin does not become a 27-point margin because of a six-point error band.

About the Poll

The UMBC Poll surveyed 776 Maryland likely voters from September 22 to September 27. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, which UMBC says is larger for subgroups and is not adjusted for design effects. The poll was conducted by the UMBC Institute of Politics under director Mileah Kromer, using live interviewers and text-to-web with a dual-frame landline and cell sample stratified by county.

Likely voters were identified by self-reported likelihood of voting, counting those who said they were absolutely certain or very likely to vote. That screen passed 776 of 842 registered voters contacted. The sample was 60 percent Democrat, 25 percent Republican and 14 percent unaffiliated. Montgomery County made up 17 percent of the weighted sample, the largest share of any single jurisdiction.

Tuesday’s release is Part 1 of three. Part 2 is scheduled for Wednesday, October 7 and Part 3 for Thursday, October 8, both at 12:01 a.m. The full Part 1 release and topline results and the crosstabs by demographic group are published by UMBC.

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